Regime's bilateral ceasefire strategy fragments Myanmar peace process, ISP-Myanmar says

By Admin 22 Jul 2026

DMG Newsroom

22 July 2026, Yangon

The military regime's strategy of pursuing separate bilateral ceasefire agreements with ethnic armed organizations is deviating from the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) framework and fragmenting Myanmar's peace process, according to a report by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar).

The findings were published in an ISP-Myanmar analytical report titled "Bilateral Ceasefires: Fragmentation of Elusive Peace Process in Myanmar" on July 21.

The report said bilateral ceasefire arrangements lack meaningful political substance and are instead being used as strategic tools to strengthen military rule and divide revolutionary forces.

"Post-coup ceasefires support neither peacebuilding nor federal democracy. Without fundamental changes to the ceasefire structure, they remain strategic tools designed to control conflict and prolong military rule," ISP-Myanmar stated.

According to the report, the regime has systematically excluded forces aligned with the Spring Revolution, including the National Unity Government (NUG) and its affiliated People's Defence Forces (PDFs).

The report also said interventions and pressure from major powers, including China, have prioritized border stability and the security of Chinese investment projects over democratic progress.

Although the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) remain members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, ISP-Myanmar said external pressures and mediation incentives have pushed them to prioritize regional stability over broader alliance strategies.

The TNLA recently held talks with regime representatives in Nay Pyi Taw as part of the regime’s peace initiative.

ISP-Myanmar said ceasefires brokered by China between the regime and ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State, including the MNDAA and TNLA, have temporarily contained fighting rather than created lasting peace, allowing the military to regroup and reposition its forces.

"China's involvement plays a primary role here. When China pressured Operation 1027, the most successful military offensive, the Three Brotherhood Alliance members were forced to pursue their own priorities. The regime took advantage of this situation. In any case, it clearly weakened the momentum of the nationwide revolution to some extent," a Myanmar conflict analyst said.

The report cited a similar pattern in November 2022, when a temporary ceasefire between the military and the Arakan Army in Arakan State allowed the regime to redeploy forces and launch major offensives against Spring Revolution strongholds, including Sagaing Region.

ISP-Myanmar warned that such divide-and-rule strategies are forcing ethnic armed organizations to focus on short-term territorial control and administration rather than broader federal democratic goals, further weakening unity among revolutionary forces.

The research institute said that without fundamental changes to ceasefire policies, Myanmar risks deeper military authoritarian rule, making national reconciliation and a democratic future increasingly difficult to achieve.