Exploring Junta-Organised Election, Parliamentary Possibilities in Arakan State

By Admin 02 Oct 2025

Written by Gaung

Introduction

This article will take a comprehensive look at how Myanmar's military regime will manipulate the upcoming election and the Arakan State parliament, how it will shape the political landscape of Arakan State, and the strengths and weaknesses of the parliament.

This article will also cover topics such as electoral laws, misunderstandings, the net political gains the military regime will accrue from them, and how party politicians factor in the results.

Junta-sponsored elections in conflict-hit Arakan State

With most of Arakan State now controlled by the Arakan Army (AA), many might think that there is no need to bother with a junta-organised election. However, the Myanmar political landscape is deeply meaningful, as it provides legitimacy for the military regime.

It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the Arakan State parliament, which is the military regime's political step in Arakan State. The military regime has designated 102 townships across the country under its control for the first phase of the election, including three townships in Arakan State.

In total, the Arakan Army has occupied and controls 14 of Arakan State's 17 townships, and has made clear that it will not allow elections to be held in the areas it controls. The military regime has announced that "Phase 1" of the election will be held in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung, the three townships it still controls in Arakan State.

The electoral system and constituencies

Previously, the First-Past-the-Post system was used in Myanmar's general elections, but now a Proportional Representation system is being considered. However, it is not exclusively based on a Proportional Representation (PR) system, but rather on a Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMP) system.

The junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC)'s August 15 constituency announcement designated 17 Pyithu Hluttaw constituencies, 12 Amyotha Hluttaw constituencies, 34 State Hluttaw seats, and one Chin Ethnic Affairs Minister seat in Arakan State.

The Pyithu Hluttaw has the same First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system as before, with 17 seats for 17 townships. However, this is no longer the case in Arakan State's Amyotha Hluttaw and the state assembly, which is confusing.

For the Amyotha Hluttaw, there will be 6 representatives from Arakan State through the FPTP system, including 1 representative from Taungup District and Thandwe District, 1 representative each from Kyaukphyu District, Sittwe District, Maungdaw District, Mrauk-U District, and Ann District, for a total of 6 representatives. Similarly, there will be 6 representatives through the Proportional Representation (PR) system. These are: 3 representatives from Constituency No. 1 Sittwe District, Maungdaw District, and Mrauk-U District, and 3 representatives from Constituency No. 2 Kyaukphyu District, Taungup District, Ann District, and Thandwe District, for a total of 6 representatives.

In the Arakan State parliament, 17 representatives are elected from the 17 townships under the FPTP system, and 10 representatives are elected from Constituency No. 1, Sittwe District, Maungdaw District, and Mrauk-U District, under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. Similarly, 7 representatives are elected from Constituency No. 2, Kyaukphyu District, Taungup District, Thandwe District, and Ann District.

"The military regime and its allies are trying to confuse the voters so that they can win," U Myo Kyaw, general secretary of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), told DMG.

According to the military-drafted Constitution and election law, the Union Election Commission has the power to cancel elections in an entire constituency or in certain areas within a constituency, as determined by the constituencies.

In the upcoming election, all polling stations will be using the Myanmar Electronic Voting Machine (MEVM). Observers are skeptical that these machines could also be controlled by the military regime.

The voting format in Arakan State is 1 vote for the Pyithu Hluttaw through FPTP, 1 vote for the Amyotha Hluttaw through a combination of FPTP and PR, 1 vote for the Arakan State parliament through FPTP and PR, and 1 vote for the Minister of Ethnic Affairs through FPTP.

The changed electoral system is very complicated, and there are concerns that the military regime could take advantage of this situation and commit voter fraud.

"The change in electoral systems, the constituency and divisional system, has prioritised the victory of the military-backed parties. Who controls the voting machines? If you think about it, you can see," said a former Arakan State MP.

According to the UEC, 330 representatives from 330 constituencies will be elected nationwide through the FPTP system for the Pyithu Hluttaw, 84 representatives from 84 constituencies for the Amyotha Hluttaw through the FPTP system, and 84 representatives from 24 constituencies through the PR system. For the regional and state Hluttaws, 322 representatives from 322 constituencies through the FPTP system, 322 representatives from 42 constituencies through the PR system, and 29 representatives from 29 constituencies for the Minister of Ethnic Affairs, for a total of 1,171 representatives from 833 constituencies.

In the first phase of the election, only a fraction of these constituencies will be up for a vote.

An Arakanese politician who was a leading member of the previous parliament criticised, "Whether the junta-organised election is a PR system or an FPTP system, it will not be a free and fair election. The military regime will pretend to conduct the election in the way it wants. Therefore, if the procedures are not simple and are complicated, the military regime will win the election."

History and structure of Arakan State's parliament

The Arakan State Parliament has 47 seats. There are 34 civilian representatives elected from Constituencies No. 1 and No. 2, 2 from each of the 17 townships of Arakan, 1 Minister for Chin Ethnic Affairs, and 12 military representatives.

According to the 2015 election records, the Arakan State parliament had 22 Arakan National Party (ANP) representatives, 9 National League for Democracy (NLD), 3 Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), 1 independent, and 12 military representatives.

In the 2010 Arakan State parliament, there were 18 members from the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), 14 from the USDP, 2 from the New National Democracy Party (NDPD), 1 from the National Unity Party (NUP), and 12 military representatives.

The ANP, ALD, AFP, RNDP, NLD, USDP, UBP, and multiple independents competed in the 2020 election.

The 2020 election was not held in 9 townships in northern Arakan State. Only Thandwe, Manaung, Gwa and Ramree Townships in southern Arakan State held elections, while Sittwe, Taunggyi, Ann and Kyaukphyu townships held partial elections. Out of 15 state assembly seats, the ANP won 7, the NLD 4, the AFP 2 and the USDP 1. However, the military took power and the parliamentary elections were effectively nullified by the February 2021 military coup.

Parties to contest Arakan State elections

The UEC has allowed six ethnic political parties claiming to represent the people of Arakan State to compete in the elections. They are the Arakan Front Party (AFP) led by Dr. Aye Maung; Rakhine State National Unity Party (RSUNP); Khami National Development Party; Mro National Party; Mro National Development Party (MNDP); and Rakhine Nationalities Party (RNP).

Among these, party politicians are considering whether parties representing Khami and Mro ethnic people are certain to compete according to the election law's regulations on party membership, office space, funding requirements, and candidates.

"These political parties are working hard to ensure that the names of the Khami and Mro ethnic groups do not disappear," U Myo Kyaw of the ALD noted.

Furthermore, politicians believe that the PR system was introduced with the aim of allowing small ethnic parties to be represented in parliament, but given the current situation in Arakan State, the parties are struggling to survive.

An observer of parliamentary politics commented, "Although the ethnic parties [intend to] use the PR system to gain representation in parliament, in the end, we see a systematic plan to ensure that the military controls more than 50 percent of the government and parliament."

Locals say the Arakan Front Party led by Dr. Aye Maung and the Rakhine Nationalities Party led by U Ba Shein are also having difficulty fielding candidates and are recruiting as many people as they can. DMG is still in touch with party leaders regarding this matter.

The junta-appointed UEC announced on September 14 that elections will not be held for any Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw or State Hluttaw constituencies in 10 Arakan State townships that were lost to the Arakan Army (AA).

The townships that will not hold elections are Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Maungdaw, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Pauktaw, Myebon, and Ramree. The military regime has not yet announced whether there are plans to hold elections in these townships at a later date.

The complexity of the Arakan State parliament

According to the above electoral constituencies and divisional specifications, only 3 elected representatives can participate in the Arakan State parliament under the township-based FPTP system.

"Since the election will be held in only three townships, only three MPs can run under the FPTP system. As for PR, it includes Sittwe District, Maungdaw District, and Mrauk-U District, it will not be possible to hold an election in Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, and Rathedaung," said an observer of Arakan parliamentary politics.

Politicians say that the military has full control over the parliament, with 12 representatives sent by the military regime. Based on the above, they also say that the military regime is trying to force an election.

Electoral law does not stipulate a certain percentage of voters to ensure the election is successful, which is a clear advantage for the military council.

The 2008 Constitution stipulates that a quorum for a session of the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw and the Region and State Hluttaw is more than half of the total number of representatives entitled to attend on the first day of the session.

It should be understood that the definition of the number of parliamentarians entitled to attend the meeting does not include candidates from regions where elections are not held.

Politicians say there is a way to hold elections only in townships where the military can control them, and then combine the small number of representatives obtained with the representatives proportional to the military to form a mandatory parliament.

"So far, the UEC has said that elections will be held in three townships in Arakan State. According to FPTP, it seems that one representative from each township will represent three in the state parliament. There will be 12 military representatives. So, imagine what will happen in this parliament," pointed out a former member of parliament.

In forming the government, the president and vice presidents will be elected by the military and USDP representatives. In addition, union ministers, government members, and regional and state chief ministers may also be appointed, according to those familiar with parliamentary politics.

According to the above, the military representatives, who are in the majority in the Arakan State parliament, will be able to choose and appoint the speaker and deputy speaker of the parliament at will.

Military-dominated electoral law

On the other hand, the UEC has said that the remaining parts of the election will be held in January 2026, so the military regime still has ways to exploit the electoral laws to get representatives into parliament.

Aung Thu Nyein, Director of Communications at the Institute for Strategy and Policy - Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar), said, "The election law does not specify a minimum voter turnout. Even if only two people vote, the election will be quorum."

There are also speculations that the number of Hluttaw representatives could be increased by asking war refugees to vote, as Section 79(f) of the Pyithu Hluttaw Election Law states that people who are outside the relevant townships that have a valid voter list claim can vote in advance.

"The list of those who can vote in advance is 'temporarily displaced persons.' They must fill out and submit Form-15 to vote. They must arrive no later than 4 p.m. two days before the election," U Aung Thu Nyein said, citing Section 85 D-2 of the electoral law.

The military regime already has information on the number of displaced people in areas controlled by the regime, and they can fill out forms and vote in their areas.

Although the elections will only be held in urban areas in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung townships, they said that ballot boxes could also be placed in these areas for Arakanese displaced people in Yangon and the mainland. At one point, the parliamentarians said that for security reasons, ballot boxes could be placed in Yangon and the Arakan State parliament could be temporarily opened in Yangon as well.

"If the fighting is intense, representatives will not dare to stay in Arakan State. They may want to move the Arakan State parliament to Yangon for security reasons. They may even set up a temporary office anywhere," said a former member of parliament.

Another former MP said, "It is likely that the military regime will hold elections by all means, as it is the fastest way to gain international recognition."

A parliament is a body elected by local representatives to discuss constitutionally mandated legislation and the needs of local ethnic groups.

In the previous two terms of parliament, the Arakan State legislature was dominated by Arakan political parties, drafting laws that were in line with Arakan State, submitting and debating proposals and questions on regional development, military, political, and economic issues, and even controlling local government.

The Arakan State parliament, which used to be filled with local representatives and worked tirelessly, is now completely devoid of civilian representatives and is no longer at the mercy of the military regime.

"To put it bluntly, the Arakan State parliament will not be as crowded as the funeral home," U Myo Kyaw criticised.

DMG has asked the RNP and other Arakan political parties contesting the election about the upcoming Arakan State parliament, but the party has not yet responded. However, the election phase (1) and the Arakan State situation remain deeply complex. The post-election convening of the parliament will also raise questions and dilemmas.

"By changing the electoral system, holding elections in segments, and using legal loopholes in the law on convening parliament, this election is an attempt by the military and the USDP to create a government and gain legitimacy," said a former Arakanese parliamentarian.

Conclusion

The above information has been discussed from all sides, focusing on the possibility of an Arakan State parliament, its weaknesses, strengths, and the net political gain of the military regime.

In summary, it is still difficult to say with certainty how the Arakan State parliament will be formed. Will the Arakan State parliament be composed of 3 civilian representatives and 12 military representatives, traveling to the first session of the parliament?

Will the Arakan State parliament be strengthened while waiting for the second phase of the junta-sponsored election? Many questions will need to be watched with interest.