Arakan Army faces intensifying attacks following TNLA ceasefire

By Admin 31 Oct 2025

DMG Newsroom

31 October 2025, Mrauk-U

A ceasefire between Myanmar's military regime and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), brokered with Chinese mediation, has reshaped the military balance in northern Shan State. Under the agreement, the TNLA has withdrawn from Mogok and Momeik.

The regime and the TNLA held their ninth meeting in Kunming, China, on October 27-28. The TNLA agreed to withdraw from Mogok and Momeik, while the military regime pledged to halt airstrikes and offensive operations.

Following the ceasefire, the military regime has recaptured Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw, and-with Chinese assistance-retaken Mogok and Momeik from the TNLA, forcing the TNLA to surrender five towns.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the TNLA, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that launched "Operation 1027," have now signed a ceasefire with the regime. This leaves the Arakan Army as the main armed group still resisting.

Military analysts warn that the cessation of fighting in northern Shan State could allow the regime to concentrate its forces elsewhere, particularly against the Arakan Army.

"The military regime is likely to focus on southern Arakan, where junta-sponsored elections are planned in Ann, Taungup, Thandwe, and Gwa. We could see air, naval, and even amphibious assaults," said Captain Zin Yaw, a Civil Disobedience Movement participant.

Observers note that while the regime has announced that elections will not be held in 10 townships in Arakan State, it has not excluded Ann, Taungup, Thandwe, and Gwa-areas under Arakan Army control. Analysts suggest the regime may be using military force to regain control of these townships.

The Arakan Army is currently conducting operations in Kyaukphyu Township, engaging in clashes with regime forces. It is also active in Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Divisions along Arakan State's borders, capturing some military bases alongside local resistance forces.

Some analysts believe the regime has strengthened its naval and air capabilities in preparation for a major offensive to reclaim Arakan State territory held by the Arakan Army.

"The Arakan Army is defending three key entry points into Arakan State and remains ready for a potential sea-based offensive," a military observer in Arakan State said. "Although the regime has redeployed forces from northern Shan, the geography of Arakan makes land and sea advances difficult. But limited options may push them to use all available military power here."

With elections approaching, the regime is intensifying efforts to retake lost cities while targeting civilian areas with air, artillery, drone, and naval attacks, increasing casualties across the region. Analysts predict that the ceasefire in northern Shan could lead to escalated fighting in Arakan and other regions, including Kachin, Kayin, Sagaing, and Magway.

Since the coup, revolutionary forces had captured 102 towns nationwide. Following the TNLA withdrawal, the regime has regained control of 11 towns, including two recently surrendered by the TNLA.