Junta fails to regain territory despite major Arakan offensive: ISP-Myanmar

By Admin 10 Oct 2026

DMG Newsroom

10 October 2026, Yangon

Myanmar's military regime has failed to recapture territory from the Arakan Army (AA) despite launching a major ground, naval and air offensive involving approximately 2,000 troops in Arakan State (Rakhine State) and neighbouring regions, according to a new report by ISP-Myanmar.

In its report, Myanmar Military's Offensive on Rakhine: Preliminary Analysis and Three Scenarios, published in English on October 9, the Myanmar-based research organisation said the offensive began on September 4, with intense fighting concentrated around Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Ponnagyun townships, as well as parts of Magway, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions.

The operation, referred to by junta supporters as “Operation 4926” or “Operation Yan Naing Aung”, involved seven military columns supported by naval vessels, artillery and airstrikes. Three columns were deployed along the Sittwe–Ponnagyun border, while another advanced from the Taung Maw Oo naval base in Kyaukphyu Township.

“Despite daily intense clashes, the ULA/AA has not lost any territory thus far,” ISP-Myanmar said in its assessment, originally published in Burmese on October 5.

The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) controls most of Arakan State following a series of offensives against Myanmar's military since November 2023.

According to ISP-Myanmar's monitoring data covering September 1–29, at least 32 armed clashes and 71 airstrikes were recorded during the period. The organisation also reported that at least 70 civilians had been killed by airstrikes and heavy artillery fire since the offensive began.

The research group said the junta had reinforced its positions through coastal naval routes and overland deployments since late August, including at the Shwe Min Gan naval base in Sittwe and the Taung Maw Oo naval base in Kyaukphyu.

ISP-Myanmar described the fighting in Arakan as increasingly resembling a “total war”, with the military attempting to regain lost territory through coordinated ground, air and naval operations, while the AA defended its positions and launched counteroffensives.

The organisation also documented at least 982 military airstrikes across Arakan since the February 2021 coup, resulting in at least 661 civilian deaths.

It identified the September 28 airstrike near Kyauktaw's India Market and Kissapanadi Bridge, which killed at least 50 civilians, as the deadliest single airstrike incident affecting civilians in Arakan during the period covered by its research.

ISP-Myanmar outlined three possible scenarios arising from the intensified conflict.

The first involves a prolonged and increasingly destructive war, with the junta continuing major offensives despite difficulties regaining territory. The second concerns a possible slowdown in the AA's territorial expansion as its forces concentrate on defending areas already under their control.

The third scenario involves worsening socioeconomic conditions, increasing displacement and tighter restrictions on civilian movement in AA-controlled areas, potentially contributing to greater social tensions.

The report said at least 6,000 people had been displaced from approximately 24 villages across Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, Ponnagyun and Rathedaung townships during the latest fighting.

Citing United Nations humanitarian data, ISP-Myanmar noted that approximately 468,100 people, or 18.5 percent of Arakan State's population, were already internally displaced in 2025.

The research organisation warned that continued military operations could increase civilian casualties and displacement while deepening economic hardship and humanitarian needs across Arakan.