Regime preparing counter-offensive, AA warns

By Admin 20 Oct 2025

DMG Newsroom 

20 October 2025, Thandwe
 
Myanmar’s military regime is preparing to re-attack some townships controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) in Arakan State, the Arakanese ethnic armed group said in a statement on October 19.
 
The AA statement also said that local residents are prohibited from fishing in the sea between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. in Thandwe and Gwa townships, and urged them to fish away from Myanmar Navy vessels during the daytime.
 
According to local residents, Myanmar’s military regime has been reinforcing its naval forces along the coastlines of AA-controlled townships such as Thandwe, Gwa, Ramree, Pauktaw, and Maungdaw in Arakan State over recent days.
 
Military analysts believe the regime’s counter-offensive preparations could jeopardise the security of local civilians in AA-controlled townships and further intensify fighting.
 
“If the military regime launches a counterattack on the townships under the control of the Arakan Army, it will first launch a heavy airstrike,”  said a former political prisoner. “The Arakan Army has announced that the military regime may launch an offensive, so the locals in Thandwe and Gwa should be especially worried. I can’t say that a counterattack by the military regime is impossible, but I think it will take a long time.”
 
The military regime is currently conducting offensive operations on the borders of Arakan State in Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady regions, but has been largely unable to advance due to resistance from the Arakan Army and allied anti-regime forces.
 
The Arakan Army, meanwhile, is attempting to capture the Nat Yay Kan tactical base in Ngaphe Township, Magway Region, and is also attacking military outposts in front of the junta’s weapons factories in Padaung Township, Bago Region.
 
The Arakan Army is also conducting operations in collaboration with local resistance forces in Ngathainggyaung and Yekyi townships in Ayeyarwady Region.
 
Military observers believe that junta troops will not enter Arakan State via Magway, Bago, and the Ayeyarwady regions, but rather will approach via the Kyaukphyu coast with air and naval forces, which could intensify the conflict.
 
“The junta troops cannot enter Ann Township from Magway Region, Nyaungkyoe Village in Bago Region or the Ayeyarwady Region,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a participant in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). “The Arakan Army has not yet controlled Kyaukphyu. Therefore, the junta troops will approach Kyaukphyu with the help of the air force and navy. The junta troops are likely to use airstrikes and heavy weapons from the water.”
 
Over recent months, the military regime has regained control of some of the territory it lost to anti-regime forces over the previous few years.
 
The military regime is desperately trying to counter the Arakan Army, which controls 14 of Arakan State’s 17 townships and enjoys broad popular support, but remains on the defensive against Arakanese ethnic armed group overall.