Arakan Army steps up offensives as monsoon hampers junta air and naval operations

By Admin 16 Jun 2026

DMG Newsroom

16 June 2026, Sittwe

The onset of the monsoon season could alter the course of fighting in Arakan State, potentially reducing the military junta's air and naval advantages as the Arakan Army (AA) intensifies its offensives on remaining regime-held positions, military analysts said on Tuesday.

The Arakan Army has reportedly set a target of capturing all remaining urban centers in Arakan State before the end of the 2026-2027 period.

In response, the military regime has reinforced its remaining strongholds in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu townships, deploying additional troops to defend the two key administrative and economic centers. Heavy fighting was reported in both areas on Monday.

Military and geopolitical observers say heavy rains and rough seas during the monsoon season are likely to restrict the junta's naval operations and air support capabilities, creating favorable conditions for the Arakan Army’s guerrilla tactics.

"The monsoon season presents a tactical advantage for the Arakan Army to conduct high-intensity guerrilla operations," a regional military analyst said. "It is an ideal time to target the regime while weather conditions disrupt its logistics. The current offensive is likely to place significant pressure on the defensive lines around both Kyaukphyu and Sittwe."

The analyst added that the Arakan Army could also expand military operations into neighbouring Magway, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions.

"The junta is reshuffling regional commanders and revising its defensive strategy to halt losses. The Arakan Army is acting to disrupt those efforts. As a result, we may see a major collapse of junta control in Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, or both areas during the rainy season."

In Sittwe Township, fighting has expanded beyond areas near the Shwe Mingan naval station and outposts under the local Military Operations Command, reaching the outskirts of Kyarmathauk and Narikan villages.

Clashes involving small arms and drone attacks have also been reported in waters between Arakan Army-controlled Wahbo Island and junta-held positions in Yartan, Tawkan and Gantgawkyun villages.

The battle for Sittwe Township has continued since early 2025, with the Arakan Army maintaining pressure on junta forces defending the state capital.

"The military junta remains in a purely defensive position in Sittwe," said Captain Zin Yaw, a military defector who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). "Its earlier plan was to launch a counteroffensive from the Amyint Kyun-Minchaung axis toward the Kuntaung-Rathedaung junction, but that strategy failed. The Sittwe garrison is now effectively contained and lacks the capacity to break out. Rather than a direct assault on the city center, the Arakan Army may continue to rely on encirclement and siege tactics throughout the monsoon season."

Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues in Kyaukphyu Township near the Taung Maw Gyi naval station close to Sanae Town. The Arakan Army recently captured at least five outposts protecting the facility and is reportedly advancing on the main base.

To prevent the loss of the naval station, the junta has deployed warships and armed speedboats from the Danyawadi Naval Base along the Thanzit River, extending its defensive presence to Maday Island, the terminal point of major Chinese oil and gas pipelines.

Residents said junta naval forces have regularly fired on and detained civilian boats traveling along the Thanzit River.

Military observers said the regime is increasingly relying on artillery strikes, kamikaze drones and airstrikes to target civilian areas and suspected Arakan Army positions across Kyaukphyu Township as ground forces face mounting pressure.

Observers believe the combination of harsh weather conditions and intensified Arakan Army operations will make Arakan State one of Myanmar's most closely watched conflict zones in the months ahead.