Fighting across Myanmar declines by 56%, research group finds

By Admin 18 Sep 2025

DMG Newsroom

18 September 2025, Mrauk-U

More than four years since the coup that launched a nationwide armed uprising against the military regime that seized power, fighting incidents have decreased by more than 50 percent over the past year, according to BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor.

BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor said there were 887 incidents of fighting in the 12 months through September 7, 2025, compared with 2,039 incidents over the previous 12-month period.

"In 2025, the revolutionary forces have had to focus on military successes, territorial defence, and administration, which is why they have to replenish their strength for further offensives and stockpile weapons. Therefore, we believe that the intensity of the fighting has decreased," said Ko Hnin Ko, head of BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor.

According to data from BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor, during the four-year period from September 7, 2021 to September 7, 2025, there were 6,332 incidents of fighting in 242 townships across the country.

BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor stated that in 2023 and 2024, with 'Operation 1027', revolutionary forces across the country were not in a state of fully coordinated military activity, but they were able to exert military pressure on the junta in line with growing anti-regime momentum.

"While the revolutionary forces were gaining momentum to fight the military dictatorship, they were hampered by China," said a military observer in Arakan State. "If China had not helped the military regime, the revolutionary victory could have been at hand. We see that the military momentum is decreasing across the country, but this is believed to be the revolutionary forces' motivation to take the next step."

According to studies by BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor, the military situation across the country appears to be in a state of preparation for a general offensive against the military regime, with forces forming regionally.

BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor has also assessed that revolutionary forces are trying to prevent the military regime from holding elections by all means possible, including military means, and that significant military developments are likely to occur before the end of 2025.