ISP-Myanmar warns junta offensives may escalate over China, India linked projects

By Admin 30 Jun 2026

DMG Newsroom

30 June 2026, Yangon

Military campaigns in Myanmar could intensify as the junta seeks to regain control of strategic trade routes and infrastructure areas linked to major Chinese and Indian investment projects, the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) said in a report released Tuesday.

The policy brief, published on June 29, followed recent diplomatic visits by Myanmar’s self-appointed President Min Aung Hlaing to China and India.

ISP-Myanmar said the junta’s efforts to secure foreign investment projects and border trade routes could lead to expanded military operations aimed at regaining control over areas currently held by resistance forces.

"Beijing and New Delhi maintain relations with Myanmar mainly based on economic and geopolitical interests," an analyst monitoring regional projects said. "Although Min Aung Hlaing made commitments during his visits, many project areas are currently under the control of revolutionary forces, creating pressure for further military operations."

The report said the Arakan Army and allied resistance groups currently control large areas linked to major infrastructure projects, including the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

Chin resistance groups also control Rikhawdar, a key border trade area connected to India, while the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) controls rare earth mining areas near the Chinese border in northern Kachin State.

ISP-Myanmar said the junta is attempting to establish a strategic connection between Arakan and Chin states with frontline areas in Sagaing and Magway regions, while also seeking to stabilize northern Shan State to reopen cross border trade.

The think tank warned that these efforts could contribute to increased fighting across northern, western, and central Myanmar.

A report by the London based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) also indicated that the junta may use its relationship with Beijing to increase political and economic pressure on resistance forces.

"Heavy fighting remains concentrated around major Chinese and Indian project areas in Arakan State, particularly Sittwe and Kyaukphyu," an Arakanese political figure said.

The official added that control of these coastal areas has become strategically important for both the Arakan Army and the regime.

ISP-Myanmar recommended that India expand its engagement beyond the junta and establish communication channels with resistance groups that currently exercise administrative control in some areas.

The think tank also described China’s approach to Myanmar as focusing on reducing battlefield tensions, supporting a transition away from direct military rule through state managed elections, and maintaining a role as a key mediator after elections.