Arakan Army under military and political pressure

By Admin 09 Sep 2025

Written By Aung Murm

The Arakan Army (AA) has seized 14 townships in Arakan State and Paletwa Township in Chin State, where it exercises administrative and judicial functions. In addition, the Arakan Army is attempting to capture Kyaukphyu and Sittwe towns in Arakan State.

The Arakan Army, which has declared that Arakan State should be a junta-free zone, is facing pressure from outside powers in the ongoing battles in Kyaukphyu and Sittwe.

Political analysts see the current challenges facing the Arakan Army as a cause for concern due to the interests of China, India, and Bangladesh.

China's military and political pressure

China is reportedly pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) of the Three Brotherhood to return the towns they captured to Myanmar's military regime during "Operation 1027," and is also pressuring the Arakan Army during the battle for Kyaukphyu.

China is supporting the military regime's upcoming elections, as well as selling the junta drone technology and military equipment. The Arakan Army's repeated statements that it will protect foreign investments from being harmed indicate that there is some pressure.

However, political analysts believe that the Arakan Army needs to capture and control Kyaukphyu to address pressure from powerful China.

"The Arakan Army is increasingly under pressure in Arakan State. While the Arakan Army has not yet captured Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, China has reached a point where it is satisfied with the Arakan Army's efforts to protect Chinese interests in Kyaukphyu," said political analyst U Than Soe Naing.

Political analysts say the recent meeting between the Chinese president and the Indian prime minister in China, led by junta boss Min Aung Hlaing, could bring about peace and other benefits for China-India relations.

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing believes that the meeting between Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese President Xi Jinping has increased pressure on the Arakan Army.

"Due to the situation of cooperation between China and India, the AA may face a greater crisis in terms of international relations. Therefore, the Arakan Army needs to capture Kyaukphyu in a short time. Only then can it support the Arakan State with sympathy," said U Than Soe Naing.

The Chinese government has shown its support for Myanmar's military regime since the Chinese Foreign Minister visited Myanmar in August 2024, and analysts believe that the junta chief's visit to China has brought many benefits.

"The Myanmar regime can get loans, military equipment, and technology from China. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's visit to China also emphasised the invitation for Chinese investment, which will not only provide Myanmar with an economic outlet but also create the necessary stability. This will pose a huge challenge for the Arakan Army. But it is not clear how to put pressure on the Arakan Army specifically," said U Aung Thu Nyein, Director of the Communication program of the Institute for Strategy and Policy - Myanmar.

A report by the Institute for Strategy and Policy - Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) released in January found that the Arakan Army had full control over eight of China's 11 major projects in Arakan State, and partial control over three.

The Arakan Army needs to be aware of China's foreign policy, and some believe that China will not exert military pressure on the Arakan Army for the time being.

"I think the Arakan Army needs to be aware of China's foreign policy. China's foreign policy is different from other countries like the United States. China's foreign policy is realism. China's policy is to protect its own interests. For now, China's goal is to reopen border trade gates, focusing on northern Shan State, so I don't think there will be any military action in Arakan State in the short term," said political analyst Ko Pyae Sone.

Relations with India must be cautious

The Arakan Army, which currently controls some of the Indian border, appears to be facing challenges in establishing good diplomatic relations with the powerful India.

Indian Prime Minister Modi, who is attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China, held private talks with Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing, and agreed to enhance cooperation in trade, defence, and border security, both sides announced.

Analysts believe that India will try to implement its desire to exert influence as a neighbouring country, competing with China in its relations with Myanmar.

However, the views of the Indian central government and the views of the lower states may differ, and some trade routes remain open because the lower states are given some freedom. On the other hand, U Aung Thu Nyein said that the military council has been cooperating on border security issues for a long time.

"If you look at India's foreign policy, the central government may have one view and the lower states may have another. It has also given the states some freedom and authority. It is possible that some trade routes are open for this. The Delhi government has been cooperating with the Myanmar military junta for a long time to solve the problem of insurgents on its border," said U Aung Thu Nyein. India has been vocal in its support for Myanmar's democracy movement and is providing study tours and expert lectures to the military regime, as the junta chief has said that the country should study the Indian model for federalism.

U Aung Thu Nyein suggested that India's interests include the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project and a highway project from the Indian border to Thailand, and that the Arakan Army needs to maintain close relations with its neighbours.

"India's economic interests include the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project and a highway project from the Indian border to Thailand, which are not yet underway. For the Arakan Army, I think it would be necessary to maintain close relations with neighbours like India," he suggested.

The meeting between Myanmar's self-appointed acting president and the Indian prime minister could put pressure on the Arakan Army, which controls some of India's border areas, and could challenge its efforts to establish formal relations with India.

The purchase of basic goods from Mizoram State is only permitted for the benefit of Indian citizens and does not constitute legal trade, so there are no guarantees for local residents in Arakan State. Although the Arakan Army currently controls most of the Indian-funded Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project, political analysts believe it needs to control the port city of Sittwe.

The Arakan Army said in a press conference on August 11 that it would work positively with the Indian government on the completion of the Indian-funded Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project.

Political analysts believe India needs to be cautious about the Arakan Army, given its history of assassinating the Arakanese revolutionaries led by Khaing Yar Zar in 1998.

Justice for Myanmar has called on India to stop selling military equipment and providing political and military support to the military regime, and not to support the junta-planned election.

The complicated Muslim issue and Bangladesh

The Arakan Army, which controls the entire border with Bangladesh, is currently facing border security, refugee issues, attacks by Muslim militants, as well as allegations of human rights abuses. U Than Soe Naing said that views that the Arakan Army's actions are oppressing Muslims do not match the situation, given that Muslim armed groups are also siding with the military regime.

"This Muslim issue is a global problem. I believe that the views that the AA's actions oppress Muslims are not consistent with the circumstances and are incorrect, given that Muslim militants are also involved in the military regime's efforts to re-establish themselves in Arakan State as a terrorist organisation," said U Than Soe Naing.

The Bangladesh government has not stopped Muslim armed groups such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, Rohingya Solidarity Organisation and Arakan Rohingya Army from forcibly recruiting young men to fight the Arakan Army in Muslim refugee camps inside Bangladesh, the International Crisis Group (ICG) told DMG in an interview.

Muslim observers believe that the lack of any control by the Bangladesh government over rallies calling for attacks on the Arakan Army in Muslim refugee camps could threaten the Arakan Army's control of the border in the long term.

There are also views that the Arakan Army needs to consider taking the issue to the international stage, as there may be mobilisation for a high-level conference on Muslim issues at the UN headquarters in September, in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution (A/RES/79/278), and Bangladeshi authorities may also have considerations.

A high-level conference on the Rohingya Muslim crisis will be held at the UN headquarters in New York on September 30.

"There may be some mobilisation for this. The Bangladeshi authorities may also have different ideas. The Arakan Army needs to think about its own internal affairs and take it to the international stage. I cannot give advice on how to solve it. Of course, there are challenges for the ethnic groups in Arakan State to live in harmony," U Aung Thu Nyein said.

The Arakan Army is facing challenges from Bangladesh, which has ignored the issue of illegal fishing by Bangladeshis in Arakan waters and has blocked the flow of goods within the region. In addition, it is believed that pressure may be placed on the Arakan Army regarding the repatriation of Muslim refugees in Bangladesh.

Political analysts suggest that the Arakan Army, which is inextricably linked to powerful countries such as China, India, and Bangladesh, is in a situation that requires subtle diplomatic solutions.