Analysts say junta's planned election unlikely to change Arakan State's political landscape

By Admin 11 Nov 2025

DMG Newsroom

11 November 2025, Mrauk-U

Myanmar's military regime has announced that the first phase of its planned election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships nationwide, including three in Arakan State: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung.

Political parties planning to contest the junta-organised vote include the Arakan Front Party (AFP) led by Dr. Aye Maung; the Rakhine Nationalities Party (RNP) chaired by U Ba Shein; the Rakhine State National Unity Party (RSUNP) led by U Aye Khaing; the Khami National Development Party led by U Sein Hla Kyaw; the Mro National Party; and the Mro National Development Party (MNDP).

According to the junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC), Arakan State has 17 seats in the Lower House, 12 seats in the Upper House, 34 seats in the Arakan State Parliament, and one Chin Ethnic Affairs Minister seat.

The regime has said elections will not be held in 10 Arakan State townships currently under the control of the Arakan Army (AA), leaving only Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung as polling areas for the first phase.

"Even if elections are held, no new Arakan State will emerge. It would be the worst parliament in history. The parliamentarians are devoid of ethics and morals, and are only concerned with gaining positions and privileges," said U Myo Kyaw, general secretary of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD).

In Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung townships, candidates contesting the junta-sponsored polls have been conducting limited campaign activities, including distributing rice to displaced people and explaining their election platforms.

RNP Chairman U Ba Shein campaigned in late October by providing food to displaced people sheltering in monasteries in Sittwe, while AFP Chairman Dr. Aye Maung has been campaigning by pledging to address rising food prices and shortages faced by Arakanese communities.

"Campaigning is hardly visible. As most towns in Arakan State are under AA control, political parties are campaigning only where the military holds power. But people are not interested in the junta-organised election because they are focused on survival amid food shortages and crisis," said a local woman in Sittwe.

Military analysts predict that fighting could intensify around the election period, as clashes between the Myanmar military and the AA continue in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.

In the lead-up to the election, the regime has reinforced troop deployments in Sittwe Township and escalated airstrikes on other parts of Arakan State, including Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Kyaukphyu and Minbya.

"The military regime is attempting to retake territories lost in Arakan State by various means. It is using excessive force in the three regions bordering Arakan State and conducting pre-offensive operations against AA-held areas. The AA has no intention of relinquishing these areas, so clashes may escalate," said a military observer in Arakan State.

The AA currently controls 14 townships in Arakan State and is attempting to capture the remaining three. Nearly two years of fighting for control of the state have displaced some 600,000 people, killed thousands of civilians and destroyed countless homes and buildings.